You are forgetting luck, and it is a very important aspect of course design. The ratio of luck vs. skill must be measured and kept in check...
Spring, I agree with you 100% about the need to maximize the role of skill and to minimize the impact of luck. And I agree with a couple other things you said.
So here is how you completely eliminate the role of luck on that second shot on Lakeside #7: throw short of the trees.
End of story. If you throw into those trees, anything can happen. If you throw short of those trees, the problem is solved. Luck disappears.
I think you said at one point that the hole was otherwise "perfect." Let me explain why I think those trees make it "more perfect." When I'm done, you can agree or not; that's fine.
1. If you play just short of the trees and up against the water, you'll have an open shot of about 200' to the circle. Maybe even 200' to the pin, I forget.
2. The closer you are to those trees, the shorter your shot to the pin. That is the type of tension between risk and reward that I hope for. From the short tee to the "point" is about 340' and leaves you 200'. Or you can go for 320' and 220'. Or 300' and 240' or... whatever you're comfortable with. I think that makes the hole much better.
3. The closer you are to the water, the more open your shot is. The farther you are from the water, the more you'll have to go around those trees. That is a second layer of risk vs. reward, and it makes the hole much, much better. Without those trees, there would be no incentive to play close to the water. So the maximum skill -- getting closer to the trees and closer to the water -- gets the maximum reward.
4. We actually took out a couple trees to make some tight alleys, so that if someone did get stuck in or behind those trees, they would have the option to go for the island through a tight gap rather than laying up. It was actually an early PITTSBORO (sand trap).
5. If those trees weren't there, you could throw a shot that would leave you with 150' to the pin, and I didn't want that. I wanted that shot to the island to be at least 200'. That way, the hole requires more skill on the second shot and more skill on the third shot.
One more thing: We did open a route around all those trees for rec players who shouldn't be throwing 200' over water. You should be able to see that alley from the red tee, but you probably wouldn't see it from anywhere else on the fairway.
There are so many little details that go into creating a hole this complex, so I hope I was able to explain my thought process. It's really hard to get all these elements to work together, but I believe they all come together just about perfectly on Lakeside #7. If you think I'm still wrong, then we'll have to agree to disagree on that. Glad we agree on the other things.
Thanks,
John