Would you say the 50% hole 11 penalties will be due to inability by the thrower (rewarding the more skilled players) OR blind luck (rewarding random throwers)?
Well, there aren't really any lower skilled players involved, right?
The model shows virtually no difference in penalties across this whole field. (Though the highest rated players get more penalties from the farther Whammy patches and fewer from the nearer.)
Also, the model found no strategy that could significantly mitigate the penalties without hurting the score.
I guess that's blind luck.
I will take the under on that one.
That's certainly possible. They could, if they wanted to really avoid a penalty, simply toss a disc just in front of the tee.
If it's below 50%, I'll need to figure out a way to see whether the players decided to sacrifice their average scores in order to avoid penalties.
What I had my model do was maximize the effective length of the first throw. I figured any throw that got a penalty got there in two throws, so its effective length was half. Given this function as the measure of how good a throw was, there was only a slight improvement possible through strategy alone (vs. trying to drive closest to the target).
The best strategy the model found was basically to just throw as far as possible but a couple of degrees right of the target. Trying to throw shorter just resulted in landing farther from the target by more than the reduction in penalties was worth.
Anyway, I am rooting for you. Fewer penalties that cannot be avoided would be better.
(Also, I would get evidence that my model can be improved.)
I'm loath to bet against Steve
Andrew designed the landing areas to be ample (even in the wind), and they seemed to play that way in testing. And yet the hole design puts a far greater premium on "too far" and "end-of-flight" compared with most par-4 holes. The results may meet or even exceed 50% penalties, and yet it seems like each player choice and result will be different than a mere coin flip. I am interested to see if the field can adapt throwing behavior to the situation.
The important thing is that we will actually see the results of an experiment, rather than discussing it forever.