desmondeby
*Necromancer*
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I agree
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2021 PDGA Professional Disc Golf World Championships June 22-26
- Thread starter brutalbrutus
- Start date
I agree
I am lucky to have my feet hit the ground each morning. I am lucky the earth keeps spinning each day. I am lucky to have a job, to afford to play disc golf. I am lucky to that I make it out to the course 4 days a week, or so. I am lucky that a few shots spin off my hand in the general direction I intend. I am even lucky enough to pop the occasional ace.
Shrug....luck is a fickle and fleeting concept. Pretty hard to apply such an idea. It was a great shot.
Shrug....luck is a fickle and fleeting concept. Pretty hard to apply such an idea. It was a great shot.
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Working on it. In the meantime, there is no doubt that to win this event anyone would need to be both good and lucky.
Tiger in 2008, who was so much better than everyone else he could win without being lucky (that is, without playing better than expected). That wasn't the case here.
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Couldn't help but laugh at "Steve being Steve."
:thmbup:
LMAO.....there is not doubt that, if it can be done, Steve will give us a graph or pie chart or spreadsheet or.......
And I will not likely understand any of it.
jakebake91
* Ace Member *
LMAO.....there is not doubt that, if it can be done, Steve will give us a graph or pie chart or spreadsheet or.......
And I will not likely understand any of it.
Every time I see a pie chart, I wonder if it comes in dutch apple......
I contend that EVERY championship in every sport has SOME semblance of luck to it. And I've been around many. In fact I once had a girls' basketball championship team with no less than 7 future D-1 players on it, dominate high school basketball in Texas in the largest classification. We were the preseason #1 in the state, preseason #2 in the country and then went wire-to-wire 42-0 winning a state and national championship. And yet even that level of dominance has some luck to it.
James was lucky. Paul was lucky 5 times. Barsby was lucky, Ricky was lucky, Nate & EMac were lucky. They've ALL been a bit lucky some times. You'll have to tell me what luckiEST means.
I'll be interested to see Steve's mathematical formulation of luck. Is something "lucky" if it's both good and unlikely? What other factors play a part?
Barsby's win in 2018 seems more unlikely, in my opinion. He averaged 38.8 points above his rating through 5 rounds to take the title.
Conrad played "only" 28.4 points above his rating, again through 5 rounds. Slightly more likely to occur.
As a comparative baseline: McBeth played 17.8 points above his rating through 5 rounds to win 2019 Worlds. At the time, that seemed about as likely as the sky being blue, or discs being round.
(I'm a big fan of all 3 players, and I wouldn't say any of those titles are mere luck. But Conrad's win is not the least probable in recent memory.)
Barsby's win in 2018 seems more unlikely, in my opinion. He averaged 38.8 points above his rating through 5 rounds to take the title.
Conrad played "only" 28.4 points above his rating, again through 5 rounds. Slightly more likely to occur.
As a comparative baseline: McBeth played 17.8 points above his rating through 5 rounds to win 2019 Worlds. At the time, that seemed about as likely as the sky being blue, or discs being round.
(I'm a big fan of all 3 players, and I wouldn't say any of those titles are mere luck. But Conrad's win is not the least probable in recent memory.)
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I almost made a similar statement.
I think there's a case to be made that when a championships won via a dominant performance, (e.g. Super Bowl blowout, or a best of 7 series that doesn't go more than 5 games), basically take luck out of the equation. Those aren't won because one party gets all the breaks, and the other party gets none.
I'd say a golf or disc golf tournament won by 5 strokes or so isn't about luck. It would take more than luck for 2nd place to bridge that gap.
Over the course of an event with more rounds (or multiple games in the case of a series) performance becomes much more important than luck.
But the thing is, participants have to play damned good to put themselves in position to get lucky. No doubt in my mind, Conrad's track record indicates he's more capable of making that kind of finesse turnover shot than any other touring pro today.
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desmondeby
*Necromancer*
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I wouldn't say that Paul McBeth was very lucky when he won 5 world championships because he IS the best player.
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When something happens repeatedly, it's not luck.
desmondeby
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Mack eby
Newbie
Ya were brothers.
BuiltTooLong
Double Eagle Member
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I wonder the extent of the "Conrad Effect" after this world title. Obviously MVP is going to get a boost, but I'm talking more about younger players emulating style. You see kids jacking up 25-30 foot jumpshots in basket trying to be the next Steph Curry, are we going to see an influx of players taking a humongous run-up now?
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Shampoo and conditioner sales increase as thousands of fans grow their locks.
Hair salons, not so much. :\
Kudos to Paige for publicly saying she basically feels Sarah won that.
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OH sure they do. Sometimes even in the case of blowouts at the end. And even more especially during a COVID year. Maybe your team was lucky to not have any major injuries at a key moment (while others did). Or maybe not to have any players unavailable due to COVID. Or maybe your team got a good draw despite being a wild-card team -- that was the luck. I never said it as "all" luck or "pure "luck"; I said they had some luck along the way.
Even the best have luck... Now is it true that the longer the series the greater the probability that the better overall performer will outpace the competition? Of course it is. But even that scenario has the luck of no other performer playing well above their (Mario Manningham or David Tyree) head -- literally.
McBeth was lucky his drive on 18 didn't slide O/B. Conrad was unlucky that his drive hit that one tree or he would have been in great position. Then he was lucky it did not drop into the pond, easily could have.
No, luck did not win this championship, skill did, along with the typical amount of good fortune needed to win any big event.
I can absolutely promise you Paul would say the same thing.
Was Cat lucky that Paige put her simple upshot O/B? Or was Paige simply unlucky on that one throw? Was Paul's bounce into the pond on the playoff hole bad luck for him or good luck for JC? JC nailed that shot ALL weekend. And once again in the playoff, with all the pressure in the world on him. Frankly, I am as impressed with sticking that shot as the throw in. Well, almost as impressed.
Great players make great shots. We mere mortals don't seem to understand that. JC's shot deservedly will forever be called the best shot in DG history until someone does it better. Not the luckiest. Just the best. And BTW, all this from someone who likes and respect Paul. He just lost to the better player this year.
No, luck did not win this championship, skill did, along with the typical amount of good fortune needed to win any big event.
I can absolutely promise you Paul would say the same thing.
Was Cat lucky that Paige put her simple upshot O/B? Or was Paige simply unlucky on that one throw? Was Paul's bounce into the pond on the playoff hole bad luck for him or good luck for JC? JC nailed that shot ALL weekend. And once again in the playoff, with all the pressure in the world on him. Frankly, I am as impressed with sticking that shot as the throw in. Well, almost as impressed.
Great players make great shots. We mere mortals don't seem to understand that. JC's shot deservedly will forever be called the best shot in DG history until someone does it better. Not the luckiest. Just the best. And BTW, all this from someone who likes and respect Paul. He just lost to the better player this year.
Chains Bailey
Birdie Member
Apples and Oranges - I can see the benefits of a manager considering all the new social media aspects and branding opportunities of todays disc golf.
I do not see a time where a caddy could provide any additional information about a disc golf course to justify that becoming a paid position.
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