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From a game construction standpoint the weight Hole 17 carries is absurd. I still think that the higher the score attainable the greater the engagement though. People remember McCray's blowup there precisely because the number was so high. It appeals to the same lowest common denominator lizard brain within people as reality tv. How important that is depends on the goals of the event.
I don't think the engagement was because of the numbers. Especially not the numbers that require math. Figuring out and then adding the number of penalty throws is not lizard brain stuff.
I think the engagement came from the obviousness of whether the throw was good or bad, the expression on his face, the humiliation of not being able to advance, the act of moving his whole bag to the tee pad in resignation.
And yes, from the knowledge that his chances of winning were being eroded. But, all that lizard brain engagement would have happened if it were simply re-throw, instead of re-throw and add an imaginary throw. Until he made the island, no one knew if he ever would. It would have been easier for everyone to stay involved it they only had to count the number of times the disc left his hand.
Steve, seems like we had this disagreement last year about H17.
I still disagree with your conclusions that laying up is a low-benefit strategy.
Nothing is without risk, admittedly, but laying up at H17 this year was relatively safe and the second throw is ~200' downhill and open.
There was a wide, flat space to lay up, about 80' in front of the tee. Plus, a lay up gives you a clear view of the green and allows a hyzer onto the green.
If H17 doesn't have this lay-up area, the discussion changes.
If the players feel like they have to go for the green from the tee, they bear the consequences.
It may be a question of practice in Conrad's case, but the lay-up is a safer play and especially for players who are tired or stressed and under pressure, it's good strategy.
I did not say it is a low benefit strategy. It's better than going for the target. It's just not the highest benefit strategy. Laying up results in a slightly higher average score than going for the middle of the island, but a lower average score than going for the target.
I laid up every time when I played in 2012. Laying up was an easy high percentage toss. Hitting the green from the layup area is a much easier shot than from the tee. I went 4434 and I'm a sub 900 player... I also wasn't worrying about my finish position so the mental stress of the hole didn't affect me as much.
The stat showing the stress of that hole on the leaders: Top 9 finishers averaged 4.7 for Hole 17 in R4. Next 9 finishers averaged 3.7 for Hole 17. That hole gets in a player's head so much more when the title is on the line. Every player knows the history of that hole. If you want the title, you have to pass that test.
Yes, laying up is easy and high percentage. But, it's not 100%. Also, it costs the player a throw before even trying for the island. That extra throw, plus the small chance of an OB lay up, is enough cost so that it is better to try to land safely on the island.
That changes if the player's main concern is something other than minimizing their expected score.
If avoiding a high score is essential, the trade-off of reducing the chance at a 2 or 3 to maximizing the chance of getting no more than 4 makes laying up the smart play.
If getting a birdie is essential, the trade-off of increasing the chance at 4, 5, or more in exchange for increasing the chance at a 2 makes going for the target the smart play.
My point is that the hole is well-designed, with multiple options that create interesting strategic choices which can change based on the situation. I think it would be better without the OB penalties. It's features and character would remain the same and it would not have such an outsized impact on final results.
Perhaps the size of the island would need to be tweaked, or the lay-up zone modified to get the balance between strategies re-optimized.